By David Nelson, CFA CMT Before we get started put down the knives, get off twitter and take a breath. I’m not calling the end of the bear market. If I could do that with a high degree of accuracy I’d have my jet, wouldn’t even be writing this post and I’d be done staring […]
Category Archives: Investment Management
October
17
Market Grief – What comes after acceptance?
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT The five stages of grief is a phrase often used when discussing all sorts of tragedies including cancer, loss of a loved one, or any terminal illness. For those of us in the market the gain and loss of capital feels like life and death so even if not justified […]
October
03
No one is talking about a soft landing anymore
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Let’s start the conversation by agreeing we need to cure the cancer of inflation. An unchecked rise in prices spinning out of control helps no one and risks pushing the U.S. economy further into crisis. However, every oncologist knows that administering chemotherapy at a pace beyond what the body can absorb […]
September
26
Fed Keeps Moving the Goal Posts
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Investors understand markets are discounting mechanism that look to perceived future cash flows to price an asset today. It doesn’t matter what the asset is, stocks, bonds, real estate or even art. All are subject to the financial laws of nature. Art doesn’t generate income at least not until it is […]
August
29
The Fed needs a new mandate
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA The Fed cannot and will not deliver on the goals laid out by Fed Chair Jay Powell in his opening remarks at Jackson Hole. The long-term target of 2% inflation is not achievable. Monetary policy on its own isn’t enough to bring down inflation expectations and deliver on the Fed’s principal […]
August
22
The Jackson Hole Zoo
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Wall Street has always had a passion for animals. Throughout history market and monetary policy sentiment has been represented by all sorts of creatures including bulls, bears, doves, hawks and of course the dreaded black swan. This year the zoo animals have been particularly active. At the start of the […]
July
25
We the People
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Congress is close to passing a $52 Billion subsidy for the Chip industry to on shore semiconductor manufacturing here in the United States. Normally, as an analyst and on the line portfolio manager I would be diving into the merits of the bill pointing out its strengths, weaknesses and whether it […]
July
18
Moneyball – The Wall Street Edition
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Earnings season is an expectations game. I use the word game because in many ways that’s just what it is. Every sport has analysts who crunch the data coming up with point spreads, player health, weather, etc. Some are even able to make an informed guess on whether the runner […]
July
05
The Wild Card – Oil!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT The first half of 2022 left little to cheer about. The bear market at its lows wiped out $10 Trillion in U.S. market cap. The temporary cease fire that drove stocks +4% off the lows didn’t hold as markets gave back about half those gains last week. Year to date, […]
June
27
CEASE FIRE!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Throughout history every war has seen periods where the fighting stops and weary soldiers get a chance to lay down their arms. For soldiers on the front lines the operational tempo of conflict forces them to live on the cutting edge and summon all their skills just to survive. Real soldiers of course […]
DAVID NELSON, CFA 