Tag Archives: Black Swan

April 01

Market Triage

By David Nelson, CFA CMT In just 23 trading days from February 19th to March 23rd U.S. equity markets declined on average (-39%). To put that perspective the Dot.com bubble took over 600 trading days from March 2000 – October 2002. Even the Financial Crisis of 2008 ending 2009 took over 350 trading days. To […]

September 03

Emerging Markets and the Black Swan

By David Nelson, CFA With good reason to celebrate investors headed to the beaches Friday on the heels of another strong month for U.S. markets. The lack of any meaningful reaction following a missed deadline for NAFTA and a full court press from the administration threatening additional tariffs on $200 Billion in Chinese imports shows investors […]

June 26

Recession Obsession

By David Nelson, CFA I look at my watch, it’s already noon as I go through my Sunday reads getting ready for the start of trading Monday. Every week seems to have a theme and it looks like the obsession this week, is what the next recession will look like. On Friday, the Bank of […]

December 21

Oil & the Black Swan – The Final Countdown

By David Nelson, CFA It’s been a little over a year since I published the first in the series, Oil & the Black Swan. Just days’ earlier Saudi Arabia had announced they would no longer be the world’s swing producer willing to cut production and support oil prices. There hasn’t been a funeral or even a […]

December 15

Oil & The Black Swan Part 2

By David Nelson, CFA From the speculative mania of tulip bulbs in 1637 to the Financial Crisis of 2008, unpredictable high profile accidents have taken down investors and sometimes even whole countries. As I said in Part 1 of this series, these events often referred to as a Black Swan are only discoverable looking in […]

December 08

Oil – The Black Swan – Part 1

By David Nelson, CFA No market event creates more fear in the hearts and minds of investors than that of the Black Swan. Wikipedia explains the Black Swan theory developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb as follows:   The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events… The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using […]