By David Nelson, CFA CMT Wall Street loves complex theories of why an asset class will outperform or head south. We tear apart income statements, balance sheets and parse every word from the FOMC. We run thousands of back tests on multi-factor quantitative models diving through virtually every data point that relates to a company, commodity, fixed […]
Tag Archives: bonds
August
31
What’s Next?
posted by David Nelson, CFA
With stocks and bonds at or close to all-time highs investors want to know $SPY #Economy $TLT
January
02
Market MVP Award goes to…
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT There’s no other way to put it. 2019 was an extraordinary year some even calling it the GOAT. Sentiment heading into 2020 is a near polar opposite from this time last year. We kicked off 2019 adding to a Christmas eve rally but the sentiment was anything but jubilant. Coming on […]
December
02
2020 – The Road Ahead
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT After a very strong 2019 and 2020 just around the corner investors want to know if there’s enough fuel for the next leg of the journey. At the tail end of last year investor fear was fueled by a Fed seemingly on automatic pilot determined to normalize rates regardless of […]
February
05
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth
posted by David Nelson, CFA
Mike Tyson – “Everyone has plan until they get punched in the mouth” By David Nelson, CFA A punch square in the jaw from Mike Tyson is probably how most traders felt when they rang the closing bell Friday. Down at the open after a better than expected jobs number, good news became bad news […]
July
10
How safe is the safe haven trade?
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Stocks ended the shortened holiday week close to the flat line while bonds and gold finished under pressure as investors rotated out of traditional safe haven assets. U.S. yields pushed higher on the heels of a better than expected jobs report coming in at 222k above consensus at 185k. U.S. 10 […]
October
10
Is the bull market in gold over?
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Rate hike fears and a strong dollar trashed gold this week driving down the metal and associated ETF’s to the lowest levels since Brexit. The inverse relationship between gold and the dollar is well documented hence the selloff in the yellow metal makes perfect sense in light of a rising dollar […]
August
29
Fed Transparency – Clear as Mud
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Even the press are starting to refer to the Fed’s annual trek to Jackson Hole as little more than a circus. (Barron’s: Fed’s Jackson Hole Circus) I said in last week’s post the commentary will be about as clear as mud followed by a parade of Fed officials each expressing their […]
August
02
It’s Still All About Oil
posted by David Nelson, CFA
The Top Strategists are tripping over themselves to call the top in the market on the heels of Jeff Gundlach’s call to sell everything. To be fair there are a lot of red flags but it isn’t all doom and gloom either. The biggest challenge is the election cycle. We haven’t been here before. Two […]
July
24
Is the VIX flashing Warning or All Clear?
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Geopolitical turmoil has had little effect this year as traders have used any sell off to increase market exposure. The good news is the market seems to be able to push higher and sustain altitude even while in overbought territory. The bad news is complacency is high with the (VIX) SPX Options […]
DAVID NELSON, CFA 