By David Nelson, CFA CMT January 15, 2023 will be the 14th anniversary of the Miracle on the Hudson. Shortly after taking off from LaGuardia airport Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger and Co-pilot Jeff Skiles glided a powerless Airbus A320 to a safe landing on New York’s Hudson River. Flight 1549 experienced a bird strike that […]
Tag Archives: Inflation
August
29
The Fed needs a new mandate
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA The Fed cannot and will not deliver on the goals laid out by Fed Chair Jay Powell in his opening remarks at Jackson Hole. The long-term target of 2% inflation is not achievable. Monetary policy on its own isn’t enough to bring down inflation expectations and deliver on the Fed’s principal […]
August
01
Are we in recession or not?
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT The administration, the press and some leading economists are having trouble with the term recession and its definition. So much so that it’s sparked a raging political debate with each side accusing the other of misleading the American people. It doesn’t matter what talking heads including yours truly think. The American people […]
July
05
The Wild Card – Oil!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT The first half of 2022 left little to cheer about. The bear market at its lows wiped out $10 Trillion in U.S. market cap. The temporary cease fire that drove stocks +4% off the lows didn’t hold as markets gave back about half those gains last week. Year to date, […]
June
27
CEASE FIRE!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Throughout history every war has seen periods where the fighting stops and weary soldiers get a chance to lay down their arms. For soldiers on the front lines the operational tempo of conflict forces them to live on the cutting edge and summon all their skills just to survive. Real soldiers of course […]
June
13
Recession!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA The two-year treasury yield briefly pushed above the 10 year early this morning. On a sustained basis it’s often thought of as a leading indicator of a coming recession. Some parts of the curve are already inverted and of course all this comes on the heels of a very disappointing inflation […]
May
23
It’s worse than we thought!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA The debate over peak inflation and whether it’s arrived or still lies in front of us really doesn’t matter anymore. Whatever metric you’re using, retail giants Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) along with a host of other retailers have confirmed our worst fears. It’s worse than we thought (Click on charts […]
May
16
The Money Runner: Talking Points Week 20
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA As we head into week 20 for 2022 there’s one question on every investor’s mind: Was Friday’s surge off the bottom the beginning of something sustainable or just a one day cease fire in a war that has wiped $7 Trillion in the S&P 500 alone? First, from a technical perspective nothing […]
DAVID NELSON, CFA 