Tag Archives: Putin

January 03

Operational Risk Management 2023 – Portfolio Go No Go Checklist!

By David Nelson, CFA CMT All branches of the military use ORM or their own Operational Risk Management system. It’s an imperative before launching any mission and commonly used by pilots in making go no go decisions. We identify the risks even those with low probability and make a quantitative judgement as to the feasibility of […]

October 24

Bear Market – The Day After

By David Nelson, CFA CMT Before we get started put down the knives, get off twitter and take a breath. I’m not calling the end of the bear market. If I could do that with a high degree of accuracy I’d have my jet, wouldn’t even be writing this post and I’d be done staring […]

August 22

The Jackson Hole Zoo

By David Nelson, CFA CMT Wall Street has always had a passion for animals. Throughout history market and monetary policy sentiment has been represented by all sorts of creatures including bulls, bears, doves, hawks and of course the dreaded black swan. This year the zoo animals have been particularly active. At the start of the […]

July 05

The Wild Card – Oil!

By David Nelson, CFA CMT The first half of 2022 left little to cheer about. The bear market at its lows wiped out $10 Trillion in U.S. market cap. The temporary cease fire that drove stocks +4% off the lows didn’t hold as markets gave back about half those gains last week. Year to date, […]

March 14

When the COWZ come home!

By David Nelson, CFA CMT War in Ukraine continues to take its toll on equity prices and with-it investor sentiment. The missile strike hitting a Ukrainian military base near Poland a NATO ally adds to those concerns. If the conflict were to breach the border even through miscalculation it could trigger article 5 potentially putting […]

March 09

Even in the specter of war there is opportunity

Last month we came within 100 S&P points of what I call fair value. Now we are trying to defend that support.

March 08

Sanctions or Bullets

The market magnet is the mid-point between the dot.com bubble high valuation and the valuation low since, Do the math. $SPY $USO

March 06

We are at War!

David Nelson, CFA CMT Fears of a coming Fed hike and rising cost of capital hardly seem a worry when Russian troops are firing on a nuclear plant and geopolitical tensions rival those of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Like it or not we are at war. The broad-based sanctions including the denial of Russia to access its […]

March 04

The Cost of Freedom

By David Nelson, CFA CMT Half a world away freedom is dying tonight. Ukraine citizens represent what America used to be more than a half century ago. I guess the reckless shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Lviv was my breaking point forcing me into a Network Character Howard Beale moment screaming “I’m […]

February 27

The Nuclear Option

By David Nelson, CFA CMT Images of ordinary citizens taking up arms to defend their country as a full scale Russian invasion of the Ukraine unfolds, forces investors to focus on more than just market fundamentals and the health of the economy. Today we have to consider a sociopath with his finger on the nuclear trigger. As of […]