Tag Archives: Ukraine

January 03

Operational Risk Management 2023 – Portfolio Go No Go Checklist!

By David Nelson, CFA CMT All branches of the military use ORM or their own¬†Operational Risk Management system. It’s an imperative before launching any mission and commonly used by pilots in making go no go decisions. We identify the risks even those with low probability and make a quantitative judgement as to the feasibility of […]

December 19

2023 – What could spark a rally in stocks

The consensus view is that the market is looking at least another full quarter of pain. What would it take to turn that thesis upside down. $SPY $TLT $GLD $DXY

August 22

The Jackson Hole Zoo

By David Nelson, CFA CMT Wall Street has always had a passion for animals. Throughout history market and monetary policy sentiment has been represented by all sorts of creatures including bulls, bears, doves, hawks and of course the dreaded black swan. This year the zoo animals have been particularly active. At the start of the […]

July 05

The Wild Card – Oil!

By David Nelson, CFA CMT The first half of 2022 left little to cheer about. The bear market at its lows wiped out $10 Trillion in U.S. market cap. The temporary cease fire that drove stocks +4% off the lows didn’t hold as markets gave back about half those gains last week. Year to date, […]

April 10

The China Syndrome

By David Nelson, CFA¬†Ukraine – The fight for survival and the horrors of a conflict half a world away hasn’t been lost on equity markets. Stocks were challenged even before the invasion as the Fed was preparing to launch an aggressive policy of raising rates while at the same time reducing a massive balance sheet. […]

April 04

We’re not in Kansas anymore

By David Nelson, CFA Investors entered 2022 with several issues that needed to be resolved. The bubble in non-profitable technology stocks had already started to unwind and inflation was well on its way to becoming a problem not just for investors and the FOMC but for everyday Americans. Add a war breaking out in Ukraine that escalated […]

March 21

Down 90%!

By David Nelson, CFA CMT I don’t think there was a single data point on its own that sparked last week’s rally. Just enough stars aligned forcing a rush back into risk assets. In just 4 trading sessions close to half the year-to-date losses were erased. S&P 500 1 Year Data by FactSet Bulls taunted with “I told […]

March 16

Ask me when we get to 75

David joins Fox Business anchor Charles Payne along with Nancy Tengler and Jim Awad in front of a Fed meeting that will usher in the first rate hike since 2018.

March 14

When the COWZ come home!

By David Nelson, CFA CMT War in Ukraine continues to take its toll on equity prices and with-it investor sentiment. The missile strike hitting a Ukrainian military base near Poland a NATO ally adds to those concerns. If the conflict were to breach the border even through miscalculation it could trigger article 5 potentially putting […]

March 09

Even in the specter of war there is opportunity

Last month we came within 100 S&P points of what I call fair value. Now we are trying to defend that support.