By David Nelson, CFA They say the market climbs a wall of worry. I’ve been hearing that my whole career and for the most part, it’s true. In fact, it’s so true that when there’s nothing to worry about, it’s probably a good time to sell. Part of the job in running money is to […]
Category Archives: Investment Management
January
17
2023 Predictions – Hero to Zero in a New York Minute
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Everyone loves predictions. Sports, politics, markets, even chess, it doesn’t matter. If it can produce a winner or loser someone is going to make a prediction and even more will risk dollars betting on the outcome. You can go from Hero to Zero in a New York Minute if you […]
January
03
Operational Risk Management 2023 – Portfolio Go No Go Checklist!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT All branches of the military use ORM or their own Operational Risk Management system. It’s an imperative before launching any mission and commonly used by pilots in making go no go decisions. We identify the risks even those with low probability and make a quantitative judgement as to the feasibility of […]
December
19
2023 – What could spark a rally in stocks
posted by David Nelson, CFA
The consensus view is that the market is looking at least another full quarter of pain. What would it take to turn that thesis upside down. $SPY $TLT $GLD $DXY
December
05
If jobs are hot why do I see a recession on the horizon?
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT This is what we do. Month after month week after week. Traders, fund managers, advisors and even you at home. We wade through a mountain of economic data looking for clues as to just how good or bad the economy and some of the companies we follow are doing. Why, […]
November
28
Nothing Changes Market Sentiment Like Price
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Investors have a myopic focus on U.S. stocks sometimes to the exclusion of most other asset classes. The stock centric thinking becomes even more pronounced when the conversation shifts to the mega cap community including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. Tech has dominated investor sentiment for the better part of a decade. […]
October
31
Saving Capitalism 1 Stock at a Time
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Most of you know I’m an ex-rocker so bear with me while I pull a band from my youth. Led Zeppelin’s Communication Breakdown was the quintessential rock song with two lines of lyrics that set the tone for what’s taking place in the communication sector this year. Communication breakdown, it’s always the […]
October
24
Bear Market – The Day After
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Before we get started put down the knives, get off twitter and take a breath. I’m not calling the end of the bear market. If I could do that with a high degree of accuracy I’d have my jet, wouldn’t even be writing this post and I’d be done staring […]
October
17
Market Grief – What comes after acceptance?
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT The five stages of grief is a phrase often used when discussing all sorts of tragedies including cancer, loss of a loved one, or any terminal illness. For those of us in the market the gain and loss of capital feels like life and death so even if not justified […]
October
03
No one is talking about a soft landing anymore
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Let’s start the conversation by agreeing we need to cure the cancer of inflation. An unchecked rise in prices spinning out of control helps no one and risks pushing the U.S. economy further into crisis. However, every oncologist knows that administering chemotherapy at a pace beyond what the body can absorb […]
DAVID NELSON, CFA 