Category Archives: Investment Management

June 27

CEASE FIRE!

By David Nelson, CFA Throughout history every war has seen periods where the fighting stops and weary soldiers get a chance to lay down their arms. For soldiers on the front lines the operational tempo of conflict forces them to live on the cutting edge and summon all their skills just to survive. Real soldiers of course […]

June 13

Recession!

By David Nelson, CFA The two-year treasury yield briefly pushed above the 10 year early this morning. On a sustained basis it’s often thought of as a leading indicator of a coming recession. Some parts of the curve are already inverted and of course all this comes on the heels of a very disappointing inflation […]

May 31

Recession Obsession

By David Nelson, CFA U.S. markets put in their first up week in nearly 2 months. After coming dangerously close to the traditional bear market, down 20% the S&P struggled for a few days and then exploded higher. Nothing changes sentiment like price. We’ll see in the weeks ahead if sentiment readings from AAII improve. (Click on charts to […]

May 23

It’s worse than we thought!

By David Nelson, CFA The debate over peak inflation and whether it’s arrived or still lies in front of us really doesn’t matter anymore. Whatever metric you’re using, retail giants Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) along with a host of other retailers have confirmed our worst fears. It’s worse than we thought (Click on charts […]

May 16

The Money Runner: Talking Points Week 20

By David Nelson, CFA As we head into week 20 for 2022 there’s one question on every investor’s mind: Was Friday’s surge off the bottom the beginning of something sustainable or just a one day cease fire in a war that has wiped $7 Trillion in the S&P 500 alone? First, from a technical perspective nothing […]

May 09

Ground Zero

By David Nelson, CFA Ground Zero – the point on the earth’s surface directly above or below an exploding nuclear bomb. 2022 has forced investors to rethink popular mega cap growth strategies that have dominated investor returns for most of the last 12 years. Of course, its outperformance coincides with a Federal Reserve quantitative easing […]

April 18

Rethinking 60-40

By David Nelson, CFA CMT We came into 2022 with a set of market challenges investors knew would prove difficult.The Fed was already gearing up for an intense interest rate hiking cycle, the first since 2018. Add a frightening war in the Ukraine, a sociopath in Russia hell bent on turning the clock back 30 years […]

April 10

The China Syndrome

By David Nelson, CFA Ukraine – The fight for survival and the horrors of a conflict half a world away hasn’t been lost on equity markets. Stocks were challenged even before the invasion as the Fed was preparing to launch an aggressive policy of raising rates while at the same time reducing a massive balance sheet. […]

April 04

We’re not in Kansas anymore

By David Nelson, CFA Investors entered 2022 with several issues that needed to be resolved. The bubble in non-profitable technology stocks had already started to unwind and inflation was well on its way to becoming a problem not just for investors and the FOMC but for everyday Americans. Add a war breaking out in Ukraine that escalated […]

March 21

Down 90%!

By David Nelson, CFA CMT I don’t think there was a single data point on its own that sparked last week’s rally. Just enough stars aligned forcing a rush back into risk assets. In just 4 trading sessions close to half the year-to-date losses were erased. S&P 500 1 Year Data by FactSet Bulls taunted with “I told […]