By David Nelson, CFA CMT A return of Covid restrictions and the inevitable reduction in economic activity is still the biggest risk investors face and in part likely explains some recent behavior in fixed income markets. As the Wall Street Journal points out virus cases are on the rise especially in parts of the country where […]
Category Archives: Investment Management
July
19
Hero to Zero
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Questioning the catalyst for the S&P 500’s first down week in a month investors went into the weekend looking for answers. Whenever we don’t have a clear explanation about price momentum or the lack there of, we scrub the numbers searching for a data point or factor to placate our […]
July
06
Growth Mirage
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT With the first half of the year in the rear-view mirror I thought it would be a good time to share some conversations taking place on the Belpointe Trade Desk. You can’t buyback your way to growth Source FactSet Last week United Asset’s Tom Healy and Matt DeLorenzo were guests […]
July
03
Cyber War – Act II
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Late Friday a massive Ransomware attack linked to Russia based REvil hit thousands of companies in more than 11 countries. The attack comes just weeks after a Biden warning to President Putin laying out 16 critical infrastructure sectors that are hands off. Cyber-attacks are quickly becoming the biggest threat world economies […]
June
28
The USS Teflon Market
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA USS Teflon Market sailed past the FOMC iceberg I called out in last week’s post. On the heels of a Fed decision week that pushed June into negative territory stocks reversed course putting in their best week since March. The reflation trade bounced hard waving off concerns of a hawkish tilt in […]
June
21
Iceberg Dead Ahead!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT The iceberg barely visible in my post from last week came into full view following Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the release that followed. If the analyst notes post the decision are any indication it seems Jay Powell and company caught the street by surprise. While the overall hit to the […]
June
14
It’s hard to see the iceberg in calm waters
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Searching for the next catalyst the S&P 500 drifted higher last week. The surprise had to be 10-year yields hitting the lowest level in 3 months on the heels of another hot inflation signal from Wednesday’s CPI numbers. It begs the question what do bond investors see that equity investors […]
June
07
State of the Market
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT All in Friday’s payroll numbers we’re just what was needed to offset the rising fear that the Fed was falling behind the curve. 559K was a little light and at that pace would take about 16 months for the 8 million still unemployed to return to work getting us back to […]
May
24
Tick Tock Tick Tock…
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT On Wednesday last the release of FOMC minutes confirmed what investors and markets already know. The Taper Clock has started and the countdown to an inevitable tightening of monetary policy has begun. The sentence ‘ a number of participants suggested if the economy continued to make rapid progress towards the Committee’s goals, […]
May
17
Cracks in the Facade
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Last week may have ended on a high note but visible cracks in the market façade weighed on investor sentiment. Inflation expectations took center stage as both headline CPI and PPI releases came in well above expectations prompting a modest flight from risk assets. Stocks recovered on both Thursday and […]
