By David Nelson, CFA Investors understand markets are discounting mechanism that look to perceived future cash flows to price an asset today. It doesn’t matter what the asset is, stocks, bonds, real estate or even art. All are subject to the financial laws of nature. Art doesn’t generate income at least not until it is […]
Category Archives: Investment Management
August
29
The Fed needs a new mandate
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA The Fed cannot and will not deliver on the goals laid out by Fed Chair Jay Powell in his opening remarks at Jackson Hole. The long-term target of 2% inflation is not achievable. Monetary policy on its own isn’t enough to bring down inflation expectations and deliver on the Fed’s principal […]
August
22
The Jackson Hole Zoo
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Wall Street has always had a passion for animals. Throughout history market and monetary policy sentiment has been represented by all sorts of creatures including bulls, bears, doves, hawks and of course the dreaded black swan. This year the zoo animals have been particularly active. At the start of the […]
July
25
We the People
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Congress is close to passing a $52 Billion subsidy for the Chip industry to on shore semiconductor manufacturing here in the United States. Normally, as an analyst and on the line portfolio manager I would be diving into the merits of the bill pointing out its strengths, weaknesses and whether it […]
July
18
Moneyball – The Wall Street Edition
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT Earnings season is an expectations game. I use the word game because in many ways that’s just what it is. Every sport has analysts who crunch the data coming up with point spreads, player health, weather, etc. Some are even able to make an informed guess on whether the runner […]
July
05
The Wild Card – Oil!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA CMT The first half of 2022 left little to cheer about. The bear market at its lows wiped out $10 Trillion in U.S. market cap. The temporary cease fire that drove stocks +4% off the lows didn’t hold as markets gave back about half those gains last week. Year to date, […]
June
27
CEASE FIRE!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA Throughout history every war has seen periods where the fighting stops and weary soldiers get a chance to lay down their arms. For soldiers on the front lines the operational tempo of conflict forces them to live on the cutting edge and summon all their skills just to survive. Real soldiers of course […]
June
13
Recession!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA The two-year treasury yield briefly pushed above the 10 year early this morning. On a sustained basis it’s often thought of as a leading indicator of a coming recession. Some parts of the curve are already inverted and of course all this comes on the heels of a very disappointing inflation […]
May
31
Recession Obsession
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA U.S. markets put in their first up week in nearly 2 months. After coming dangerously close to the traditional bear market, down 20% the S&P struggled for a few days and then exploded higher. Nothing changes sentiment like price. We’ll see in the weeks ahead if sentiment readings from AAII improve. (Click on charts to […]
May
23
It’s worse than we thought!
posted by David Nelson, CFA
By David Nelson, CFA The debate over peak inflation and whether it’s arrived or still lies in front of us really doesn’t matter anymore. Whatever metric you’re using, retail giants Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) along with a host of other retailers have confirmed our worst fears. It’s worse than we thought (Click on charts […]
DAVID NELSON, CFA 