Tag Archives: Inflation

November 28

Nothing Changes Market Sentiment Like Price

By David Nelson, CFA Investors have a myopic focus on U.S. stocks sometimes to the exclusion of most other asset classes. The stock centric thinking becomes even more pronounced when the conversation shifts to the mega cap community including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. Tech has dominated investor sentiment for the better part of a decade. […]

October 24

Bear Market – The Day After

By David Nelson, CFA CMT Before we get started put down the knives, get off twitter and take a breath. I’m not calling the end of the bear market. If I could do that with a high degree of accuracy I’d have my jet, wouldn’t even be writing this post and I’d be done staring […]

September 26

Fed Keeps Moving the Goal Posts

By David Nelson, CFA Investors understand markets are discounting mechanism that look to perceived future cash flows to price an asset today. It doesn’t matter what the asset is, stocks, bonds, real estate or even art. All are subject to the financial laws of nature. Art doesn’t generate income at least not until it is […]

September 19

Fed Soft Landing – All we need is a miracle

By David Nelson, CFA CMT January 15, 2023 will be the 14th anniversary of the Miracle on the Hudson. Shortly after taking off from LaGuardia airport Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger and Co-pilot Jeff Skiles glided a powerless Airbus A320 to a safe landing on New York’s Hudson River. Flight 1549 experienced a bird strike that […]

August 29

The Fed needs a new mandate

By David Nelson, CFA The Fed cannot and will not deliver on the goals laid out by Fed Chair Jay Powell in his opening remarks at Jackson Hole. The long-term target of 2% inflation is not achievable. Monetary policy on its own isn’t enough to bring down inflation expectations and deliver on the Fed’s principal […]

August 01

Are we in recession or not?

By David Nelson, CFA CMT The administration, the press and some leading economists are having trouble with the term recession and its definition. So much so that it’s sparked a raging political debate with each side accusing the other of misleading the American people. It doesn’t matter what talking heads including yours truly think. The American people […]

July 05

The Wild Card – Oil!

By David Nelson, CFA CMT The first half of 2022 left little to cheer about. The bear market at its lows wiped out $10 Trillion in U.S. market cap. The temporary cease fire that drove stocks +4% off the lows didn’t hold as markets gave back about half those gains last week. Year to date, […]

June 27

CEASE FIRE!

By David Nelson, CFA Throughout history every war has seen periods where the fighting stops and weary soldiers get a chance to lay down their arms. For soldiers on the front lines the operational tempo of conflict forces them to live on the cutting edge and summon all their skills just to survive. Real soldiers of course […]

June 15

Fed Day

June 13

Recession!

By David Nelson, CFA The two-year treasury yield briefly pushed above the 10 year early this morning. On a sustained basis it’s often thought of as a leading indicator of a coming recession. Some parts of the curve are already inverted and of course all this comes on the heels of a very disappointing inflation […]